(Update 1:00 PM 09/05/19)
RALEIGH, NC – Hurricane Dorian Category 2 storm has its sights on North and South Carolina Coasts. Dorian may make landfall near Wilmington, North Carolina later this evening, according to the latest weather model.
Tornado warnings have been issued in North Carolina. A large tornado was reported on the ground in North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina this morning. More here! Several NC counties are under tornado watch until 7:00 PM this evening. Latest NC weather information.
Around 1500 lineman are stationed at Walnut Creek in Raleigh, NC, waiting and ready to go. They are expecting 700,000 power outages during the storm and plan to stay up to two weeks to restore people’s power.
Dorian is expected to arrive in North Carolina as a Category 2 storm, sometime on Thursday and move up the coastline on Friday afternoon or evening. Dorian is expected to bring tornado warnings for NC coastlines as the center comes nearer.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 79.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the north- northeast is anticipated today, with a turn toward the northeast by tonight. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue to move close to the coast of South Carolina through the day, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected this morning, followed by slow weakening through Saturday. However, Dorian is expected to remain a hurricane for the next few days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Charleston, South Carolina, recently reported a wind gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) at the Charleston International Airport.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the South Carolina coast later this morning. Tropical storm conditions will begin along the coast of North Carolina within the next couple of hours, with hurricane conditions beginning later today.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday or Friday night.
Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or early Saturday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC…5 to 8 ft Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC…4 to 7 ft Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC…4 to 7 ft Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers…4 to 6 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads…2 to 4 ft.
Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday:
Coastal Carolinas…6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Far Southeast Virginia…3 to 8 inches Coastal Georgia…1 to 2 inches Extreme southeastern New England…2 to 4 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this afternoon near the coastal South and North Carolina border area. This threat will expand northeastward across the rest of eastern North Carolina during the afternoon and continue into tonight.
Hurricane Dorian’s Path
A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight. Some risk for a couple of tornadoes could develop across parts of the coastal Carolinas today through tonight in association with Hurricane Dorian. . . .
Hurricane Dorian Tracking Map Links:
Water Vapor Map.
Current Dorian Hurricane Updates
Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds
Check back for future updates to this developing story.